Blue Mountain's first quarterly report on Spain's mergers and acquisitions market. Q1 2026 analysis: transaction volume, average valuations, most active sectors, and outlook for the mid-market segment of companies between €3M and €50M turnover.
This is the first issue of a quarterly publication. Starting now, Blue Mountain will analyse the Spanish mergers and acquisitions market every three months — data, trends, and our perspective as active investors in the Spanish mid-market. The goal is to build the most rigorous and accessible record of the segment we know best — companies with €3M to €50M in revenue — and share it with the entrepreneurs, advisors, and professionals who participate in it.
Q1 data are preliminary by definition. Many deals closed in January-March are not formally registered for weeks or months afterward. With that methodological caveat, what follows is our best analysis of the quarter.
The first quarter of 2026 confirms the positive trajectory of the Spanish M&A market that took hold in 2024. With an estimated 370–390 transactions, the quarter would represent a 6–8% year-on-year increase versus approximately 350 deals in Q1 2025, consolidating the structural recovery in deal volume.
The tailwinds are well-known but remain real: Euribor continues its moderation path, the Spanish economy is growing above the European average, and demographic pressure on family businesses is turning succession into an operational necessity for thousands of owners. What is new this quarter is the intensity of activity in companies with €3M–€10M in EBITDA: both volume and multiples are improving in that specific range.
The most active sectors in Q1 2026 are technology/IT services, healthcare and dental, logistics and transport, food and beverage, and industrial services. International private equity maintains its presence, but trade buyers and family offices have gained relative share.
The outlook for Q2–Q3 2026 is constructive. The most telling signal: the pipeline of deals in preparation — companies with an active sell mandate or in due diligence — is the broadest since 2022.
The Spanish macro environment in Q1 2026 is broadly supportive of corporate activity.
GDP growth. The Bank of Spain and the IMF project Spanish GDP growth for 2026 at around 2.1%–2.3%, above the Eurozone average (projected at 1.2% by the EC). This differential — maintained for the fourth consecutive year — reflects the strength of the services sector, tourism’s pull effect, and the resilience of domestic consumption. For the M&A market, the growth differential is an attractor of international capital: investors seek economies where business fundamentals are improving, not merely stabilising.
Euribor and financing costs. The 12-month Euribor closed March 2026 at around 2.05%, continuing the downward path initiated with ECB cuts in summer 2024. Market consensus expects rates to remain in the 1.75%–2.25% range through 2026, absent external shocks. This has a direct consequence for leveraged transactions: a company acquired with 3.5x debt/EBITDA at current rates carries a manageable debt service. At the cycle peak (Euribor ~4% in 2023), the same structure was barely viable. The window is open.
Labour market. Spain’s EPA survey for Q4 2025 placed the unemployment rate at 10.6%, the lowest since 2007. Employment is growing, but so are wages: unit labour costs rose 3.4% year-on-year in 2025, which pressures margins for labour-intensive businesses (hospitality, services, light manufacturing). Buyers are increasingly pricing this expected wage pressure into their acquisition models.
Business confidence. The INE Business Confidence Index for Q1 2026 remained in positive territory, with a slight improvement versus the prior quarter. Regulatory uncertainty (tax reform, labour legislation) weighs on qualitative indicators, but is not preventing investment decisions.
SME credit conditions. The ECB Bank Lending Survey for January 2026 indicates that credit standards for SMEs in Spain have relaxed marginally from the restrictive levels of 2023. Bank financing for mid-market acquisitions is available again at reasonable structures: senior debt at Euribor + 250–375 basis points with leverage of 3x–4x EBITDA for companies with stable cash flow.
Based on preliminary data through end of March, we estimate a total of 370–390 transactions in Spain in Q1 2026, representing 6–8% year-on-year growth versus approximately 350 deals in Q1 2025.
This estimate is based on extrapolation of Mercantile Registry data, BOE publications, deal announcements in specialist sources (TTR, Mergermarket, Transactional Track Record), and our own market intelligence. The final figure, once registrations are consolidated, will likely be at the upper end of the range.
| Segment | Enterprise Value Range | Est. Q1 2026 Deals | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Micro | < €5M | 185–195 | ~50% |
| Small | €5–15M | 100–110 | ~27% |
| Middle | €15–50M | 55–65 | ~16% |
| Large | > €50M | 25–30 | ~7% |
The middle segment (€15–50M) shows the sharpest relative acceleration. Estimated growth in that range is roughly double that of adjacent segments, driven by the combination of mature generational successions and growing private equity appetite for build-ups in fragmented sectors.
International buyers (primarily European and North American funds, and trade buyers from DACH, France, and the UK) account for approximately 38% of completed deals in Q1 2026, slightly above the 35% of the prior year. Spain’s exposure to European geopolitical risk is perceived as low relative to markets such as Poland or Romania, attracting capital seeking stability.
Domestic buyers dominate in the micro and small segments, where local knowledge and trust relationships remain decisive.
The Q1 pace, if sustained, would point to 1,500–1,550 transactions in full-year 2026, which would make it the strongest year since 2022. The limiting factor is not demand — buyer appetite remains high — but the supply of well-prepared companies ready to transact.
Consolidation in the Spanish mid-market technology sector continues at a healthy pace. Q1 2026 deals are concentrated in three sub-segments: vertical management software (ERPs for industry, construction, and hospitality), cybersecurity services for SMEs, and IT outsourcing (helpdesk, cloud migration).
Entry multiples for companies with recurring revenues and low churn sit at 8–12x EBITDA, with the highest valuations for SaaS models with multi-year contracts. The dominant acquirers are growth-stage funds with ticket sizes between €5M and €30M, and technology platforms seeking to expand their geographic footprint in Spain.
Blue Mountain’s view: Vertical software for SMEs remains a niche with solid fundamentals. Many companies in this space generate €2M–€8M in revenue with 25–35% margins. Not glamorous — but highly predictable.
The clinic roll-up model — consolidating independent practices under a centrally managed network — remains one of the most active playbooks in the Spanish market. In Q1 2026, the focus has shifted from dentistry (already consolidated in many urban markets) towards podiatry, physiotherapy, clinical psychology, and aesthetic medicine clinics.
International buyers are particularly active: Nordic groups (Colosseum, Smile Care Group) and Central European funds see Spain as a platform large enough to build sector-scale positions. Multiples move in the 7–11x EBITDA range for clinics with a strong revenue track record and roll-up potential.
Blue Mountain’s view: Healthcare is structurally defensive. Demand does not fall in recession, patients are recurring, and the margins of well-managed networks are attractive. The main risk is key-person dependency on one or two practitioners — which must be addressed contractually.
The transition to electric vehicles, emissions regulations in low-emission zones, and the explosion of e-commerce are redrawing Spain’s road transport competitive landscape. Companies that have invested early in electric fleets and urban logistics contracts trade at a premium; those that have not, at a discount.
In Q1 2026, the most relevant deals in this sector are build-up transactions: an operator of some scale acquiring regional capacity to complete national coverage. Entry multiples for well-positioned operators range from 5–8x EBITDA, with the upper end reserved for companies with long-term framework contracts with major shippers.
Blue Mountain’s view: Cold chain logistics and specialised logistics (pharmaceutical, high-value electronics) offer better margins than general freight. We continue to explore opportunities in those niches.
Spanish agri-food exporters are in a particularly favourable position. Olive oil, Iberian charcuterie, wine, and seafood preserves have gained penetration in European, North American, and Asian markets over the past three years. International buyers are seeking exposure to premium categories with protected designations of origin or differentiated traceability.
In the domestic market, consolidation is advancing in specialised food distribution (gourmet retail, corporate catering) and in ready-to-eat and ready-to-cook (categories IV and V). Average multiples sit at 6–9x EBITDA, with the highest valuations for brands with established international presence.
Blue Mountain’s view: The olive oil value chain — from the mill to international distribution — is an area where we see vertical value-creation opportunities. 2025 was an exceptional harvest year; 2026 normalises margins but not structural demand.
Facility management, industrial maintenance, project engineering, and environmental services form a universe of companies that rarely generate headlines but offer highly attractive investment characteristics: recurring contracts, stable industrial clients, barriers to entry based on relationships and certifications, and predictable margins.
In Q1 2026, activity in industrial services is driven primarily by generational sales: founders in their 60s and 70s who have built solid businesses but have no identified successor. Entry multiples range from 5–8x EBITDA for companies with diversified client portfolios; those dependent on one client or project trade at a significant discount.
Blue Mountain’s view: This is the segment where we expect to find our most interesting opportunities in 2026. The combination of reasonable entry price, visible cash flow, and operational improvement potential is difficult to find in higher-profile sectors.
| Sector | EBITDA Multiple (range) | Trend vs Q4 2025 | Reference multiple |
|---|---|---|---|
| Technology / IT | 8x – 12x | Stable | 10x |
| Healthcare / Dental | 7x – 11x | Slight increase | 9x |
| Logistics / Transport | 5x – 8x | Stable | 6.5x |
| Food and Beverage | 6x – 9x | Slight increase | 7.5x |
| Industrial Services | 5x – 8x | Stable | 6x |
| Hospitality | 6x – 9x | Slight decrease | 7x |
| Construction (services) | 4x – 7x | Stable | 5.5x |
| Distribution / Trade | 4x – 6x | Stable | 5x |
Multiples on normalised EBITDA. Estimates based on closed transactions and ongoing processes, Mergermarket, TTR, and proprietary sources. Ranges reflect real market dispersion; not every company in a sector achieves the upper end.
Three principal factors explain why mid-market multiples in Spain have not compressed despite two years of elevated rates preceding this cycle:
PE dry powder. Spanish and European funds focused on Spain have raised capital that must be deployed before fund expiration. According to Invest Europe, European PE dry powder deployable to mid-market sits at historical highs. This creates sustained buyer pressure that supports prices even in sectors without extraordinary growth narratives.
Scarcity of well-prepared companies. Not all companies on the market are equal. Those with audited accounts, professional management, and formalised contracts command multiples at the upper end of their sector range. Most Spanish mid-market companies arrive at a sale process with preparation work still to do, which compresses their realised valuation.
Small-cap premium effect. A new and relevant trend: companies with EBITDA between €1M and €3M are receiving relatively higher valuations than three years ago. The reason is private equity moving into smaller tickets as competition in the mid-cap space intensifies. A company that would have traded at 4x EBITDA five years ago may now attract bids at 5.5x–6x if it can demonstrate revenue recurrence.
The figure that the market consistently underestimates: according to cross-referenced estimates from INE, the IEF (Family Business Institute), and Mercantile Registry data, approximately 540,000 Spanish business owners will reach the customary retirement age (65–70) before 2030. Most own companies with €1M–€30M in revenue — many without a formal succession plan.
In Q1 2026, transactions where the seller is a family business represent an estimated 57–60% of total deals in the €5M–€50M enterprise value range. This share has grown consistently from 48% in 2020. This is not a cycle; it is a structural transition with a decade-long horizon.
The concentration of first-generation founder businesses is geographically heterogeneous. Regions with the highest density of companies in succession phase are:
A pattern we observe in our deal flow: the interval between a first exploratory conversation and the decision to proceed has shortened. In 2021–2022, many entrepreneurs would initiate conversations but postpone decisions for years. Today, the combination of a reasonable valuation environment, awareness of their own age, and in some cases deteriorating health, act as catalysts. The cost of inaction — both for enterprise value and business continuity — is now more visible.
According to our own data, over 70% of Spanish family businesses have no formal family protocol, and fewer than 30% reach the second generation with the business intact. These figures are not new, but their impact on the M&A market is proving sharper than in previous cycles.
Data from Spain’s BOE and the Notary Statistical Information Centre (CIEN) show a moderation in formal insolvency filings in Q1 2026 versus the 2023 peak. The estimated flow sits at approximately 1,400–1,600 filings for the quarter, below the 1,800–2,000 of Q1 2023. Spain’s Second Chance Act and out-of-court payment agreement mechanisms have allowed many situations to be resolved before reaching formal insolvency.
More relevant to the M&A market is the volume of companies undergoing out-of-court restructuring processes (Articles 583 et seq. of the Spanish Insolvency Act). In Q1 2026, this flow has been significant, particularly in late-cycle residential construction, traditional distribution, and hospitality in inland tourist destinations.
These situations generate acquisition opportunities — whether of assets or entire businesses — at prices discounted to going-concern value, but require speed of analysis and tailored financing structures. They are not for buyers without turnaround experience.
The first quarter of 2026 was active for us. We reviewed 23 investment opportunities in some depth — from initial conversations through to preliminary due diligence — across logistics, industrial services, food, and vertical technology. We advanced into formal processes on two.
What we are seeing in our deal flow confirms what the aggregate data suggest: succession pressure is real and growing, valuations are reasonable but not cheap, and the quality of sale processes has improved meaningfully over the past two years. There are more competent advisors, more sophisticated buyers, and more entrepreneurs who understand what makes their company attractive to an external buyer.
There is also something new worth flagging: a growing number of owners who do not want to “sell and exit” but to find a partner who will help them scale. The distinction between financial and strategic-operational buyer is blurring. Many owners are looking for an intermediate profile: someone who brings capital and capabilities, respects the culture built over decades, and does not impose a 4-year exit horizon. That profile is, in many respects, ours.
For Q2–Q3 2026, we expect the market to maintain its pace or accelerate modestly. The typical M&A seasonality — pre-summer deal closings, reduced activity in August, Q4 sprint — should frame the calendar. The key uncertainty is the international macro environment: if US tariffs or a Chinese slowdown generate a perceived deterioration in European prospects, some international buyers may pause decision-making. For now, we do not see that signal.
The best opportunities of the year will not be determined by the aggregate market. They will be determined by the ability to identify, in time, companies not yet in a formal sale process but whose owners are thinking about it. That is the work we are engaged in.
| Indicator | Estimated Value Q1 2026 | Source / Reference |
|---|---|---|
| Total estimated transactions | 370–390 | TTR, Mergermarket, BOE, proprietary sources |
| Year-on-year change | +6–8% | vs. ~350 deals Q1 2025 |
| % deals with family business seller | ~58% | Estimate based on TTR and proprietary data |
| Mid-market EBITDA multiple (average range) | 6.5x – 7.5x | Market range; varies by sector |
| 12M Euribor (March 2026) | ~2.05% | ECB / Bank of Spain |
| Spain GDP growth 2026 (est.) | +2.1% – 2.3% | Bank of Spain, IMF |
| Unemployment rate (EPA Q4 2025) | 10.6% | INE |
| Business owners reaching retirement age before 2030 | ~540,000 | INE, IEF, proprietary estimates |
| % family businesses without formal protocol | >70% | Instituto de la Empresa Familiar |
| Estimated insolvency filings Q1 2026 | 1,400–1,600 | BOE, CIEN |
| Senior debt cost (mid-market acquisitions) | Euribor + 250–375 bps | Banks and private debt funds |
| European PE dry powder (reference) | Historical highs | Invest Europe, 2025 |
| Average leverage in mid-market deals | 3x – 4x EBITDA | Estimate based on closed transactions |
Transaction volume data are derived from the aggregation of public sources (BOE, Mercantile Registry, CNMV) with specialist M&A databases (TTR — Transactional Track Record, Mergermarket). Mercantile Registry data carry a 30–90 day lag between transaction close and formal registration, so current-quarter figures should be treated as preliminary. Valuation multiples are based on closed transactions with known terms, ongoing processes, and market benchmarks; they do not represent an official valuation of any specific company.
Macroeconomic data are sourced from INE, the Bank of Spain, the ECB, Eurostat, and the IMF. Family business data are sourced from the Instituto de la Empresa Familiar (IEF). Insolvency data are sourced from the BOE and the Centro de Información Estadística del Notariado (CIEN).
If your company is in the segment we analyse and you are exploring options — bringing in a partner, a partial or full sale, capital restructuring — we would welcome a confidential conversation. The best conversations start before urgency sets the timeline.
The next quarterly report — Q2 2026 — will be published in July 2026.
By Blue Mountain Capital
By Blue Mountain Capital
By Blue Mountain Capital
If you wish to explore a potential collaboration or present an investment opportunity, we invite you to contact us. We guarantee absolute confidentiality in all our conversations.