With third-quarter data in hand, we present a first assessment of the Spanish M&A market in 2024: selective recovery, stabilised multiples, and a resilient middle-market.
With one quarter left to close the year, it is a good time to take stock of the Spanish mergers and acquisitions market in 2024. The predictions we shared in January have largely come to pass, though with nuances that are worth examining.
The Spanish M&A market has registered a moderate recovery compared to 2023. The total number of announced transactions in the first nine months exceeds the same period last year by approximately 10%, though it remains below the peaks of 2021-2022.
More relevant than the total volume is the composition: large transactions — above 500 million euros — remain scarce, penalised by a cost of financing that, while it has moderated, remains significantly higher than in the zero-rate era. In contrast, the middle-market segment — transactions between 5 and 100 million euros — has shown robust and growing activity.
EBITDA multiples have stabilised following the correction of 2022-2023. In the middle-market, the ranges we observe are:
What stands out is the dispersion within each sector. High-quality companies — with recurring revenues, an autonomous management team, above-average margins, and growth prospects — trade at the upper end of the ranges or above them. Companies with identifiable weaknesses — founder dependence, client concentration, deteriorating margins — trade at the lower end or simply cannot find a buyer.
The market has matured: investors no longer pay a multiple for belonging to a sector; they pay a multiple for the specific characteristics of each company.
Activity in the technology sector remains the most intense, driven by the digital transformation across all economic sectors. B2B software companies with SaaS models and demonstrable growth are the most sought-after. Artificial intelligence as an investment theme has generated interest but few closed deals, because most AI companies in Spain are too young for the middle-market profile.
The healthcare sector has been a positive surprise in 2024. Clinic chains, specialised laboratories, and healthcare services companies are attracting growing interest, driven by structural demand for health services and multiples that, compared to other European markets, remain attractive.
The consolidation of the logistics sector continues apace, with deals from both private equity-backed platforms and industrial operators seeking inorganic growth. Specialisation — controlled temperature, last mile, e-commerce — commands a significant premium in multiples.
The energy transition continues to generate opportunities, particularly in the segment of maintenance services for renewable installations, energy efficiency, and waste management.
Acquisition financing has been the main bottleneck of the market during 2023 and the first half of 2024. However, in the third quarter, we have observed a gradual normalisation.
Banks are regaining appetite for acquisition financing, especially in middle-market transactions with prudent structures. Direct lending funds remain a competitive alternative, particularly for transactions requiring greater flexibility or falling outside standard banking criteria.
The cost of debt remains higher than in 2020-2021, but the availability of financing has improved significantly. This is unblocking deals that were paralysed by the lack of financing, not by the lack of interest between buyer and seller.
One of the most relevant phenomena of 2024 has been the progressive reduction of the gap between sellers’ price expectations and market reality. After eighteen months in which many business owners expected multiples to return to 2021 levels, a growing proportion of sellers have accepted that the new interest rate environment implies a recalibration of valuations.
This acceptance is unblocking transactions. Companies that had been on the market for a year or more without closing are now willing to negotiate within realistic ranges. And buyers who had paused their activity are returning to the market with renewed appetite.
The fourth quarter traditionally concentrates a significant volume of closings, driven by the pressure to close before year-end for tax and accounting reasons. We expect 2024 to be no different, with an active year-end that will consolidate the market’s recovery.
For 2025, the outlook is moderately optimistic: the normalisation of financing, the closing of the expectations gap, and the structural demand for succession and sector consolidation transactions should sustain a healthy level of activity.
Blue Mountain has maintained a steady pace of activity during 2024, true to our philosophy of not depending on the market cycle but on the quality of individual opportunities. We have been selective — as always — but we have found companies that fit our investment thesis and justify our capital and our time.
The assessment of 2024 will be, when we have the complete data, that of a year of healthy normalisation. Not euphoria or crisis, but a market that has found a new equilibrium after the excesses of the zero-rate era. And that equilibrium is good for disciplined investors.
By Blue Mountain Capital
By Blue Mountain Capital
By Blue Mountain Capital
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