Looking ahead to 2024, the Spanish middle market presents an opportunity scenario: growing succession flow, reasonable valuations, and sectors in consolidation. We share our vision and priorities.
The end of each year is a natural moment to look ahead. What do we expect in the Spanish middle market in 2024?
The ECB has stabilised rates at levels significantly above 2020-2021. The consensus points to stabilisation in 2024 with possible modest reductions in the second half. For M&A, this means acquisition bank financing will remain more expensive, favouring buyers with their own capital (like family offices).
Spain will likely grow above the eurozone average, driven by tourism, domestic consumption, and Next Generation funds. Inflation has eased from 2022 peaks but remains above the ECB’s 2% target, pressuring margins for companies that cannot pass cost increases through to prices.
More succession-driven deals. The clearest and most predictable trend. Each year, more founding-generation entrepreneurs reach retirement.
Accelerated sector consolidation. Buy-and-build platforms in logistics, hospitality, industrial services, distribution, and the circular economy will intensify activity.
Digitalisation as a value lever. 2024 will be the year digitalisation shifts from IT project to strategic priority in many middle-market SMEs. Certus will play a growing role in this area.
Stabilised valuations. Multiples will stabilise at current levels — reasonable and sustainable. No return to 2021-2022 peaks, but no significant decline either.
Greater patient capital prominence. With large funds more cautious and bank financing more expensive, family offices and direct investors will gain prominence.
Direct investment. Continue acquiring in our priority sectors — logistics, hospitality, industrial services, circular economy — focusing on succession deals and consolidation platforms.
Special situations. We expect growing flow of opportunities from companies with financial or operational difficulties generated by the higher-rate, margin-pressure environment.
Certus. Our technology division will intensify its investment activity, with a focus on applied AI, vertical SaaS, and SME cybersecurity.
I have been investing in the Spanish middle market for over fifteen years and my conviction has only grown stronger. Spain is an exceptional market for the patient investor: quality companies, talented entrepreneurs, sectors with potential, and a flow of opportunities unmatched in Europe.
2024 will be a good year for those who can combine patience with decisiveness, selectivity with ambition, and financial rigour with human sensitivity.
Happy 2024.
Dirk Manuel Martens Jimenez Founder, Blue Mountain Capital
By Blue Mountain Capital
By Blue Mountain Capital
By Blue Mountain Capital
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